Rahul Guha’s Ballot Bowl diary

 

3^rd March

One day from the "special Tuesday" which will determine big states like Texas and Ohio.

Recent poll numbers show in TX Barak is ahead and in Ohio Hillary is. Both has enough "undecided" viters who can change the dynamics. One more important point - none of them are "open" primary ... meanining only registered democrats can vote.

If you read previous entries ... you know I was moved by Barak Obama. I still think he will make a better president.

However ... following campaigns of both in CNN last few days ... I think Hillary won't be written off as media thought. And that's because of few reasons:

1. Hillary's attack strategy finally became irrelevant. She is now talking more about "solution" person than attacking Barak. She has a great track record ... and she is finally focusssing on that.

2. I think Barak Obama's eleven streight victory created sort of "anti incumbancy" factor against Barak. Closet supporters for Hillary are coming out now for their candidate. Huge surge in fund raiser is a clear indication of that.

3. And finally ... Hillary is coming out of her "first lady" shell. In last few speeches she is talking more like "human being" and not like a "politiking robot" ... she is representing the "women of america" ... and frankly speaking she is NOT that boring anymore. In other words she is finally "showing some leg"

 

So it'll be a interesting day to watch. I think Hillary will do better than thought ... however Obama momentum is still present.

So either way the difference will be very little ... almost photo finish.

I think Hillary may come out better ... and I would be very happy if I am wrong !!!

 

4^th March:

Now they got him ...

The story around NAFTA and Canadian Consulate probably will have biggest impact on this primary. Whether NAFTA should be supported or not ... that'll raise question about Obama's intigrity. And whether it really happened or not ... it's all about perception.

 

I think Hillary will win both (Ohio and Tx) today and add more juice for PA primary ...

 

Let's see if I can become a political predictor or not !!!